Markets
Capital Markets (stocks and bonds)

How the Rising Dollar Ripples Across the US Economy

Image

The strengthening U.S. dollar is a double-edged sword for the economy and investors, according to a report released today by The American Institute for Economic Research.

The dollar has risen about 15 percent since its low of June 2011, allowing Americans to enjoy lower prices for imported goods, and helping keep inflation in check. It can also lead to lower commodity prices, allowing Americans to pay less for energy and food.

But it has made exports more expensive, reducing U.S. manufacturers’ competitive advantage abroad. As domestic manufacturers reduce expenses, that can lead to job losses and restrain economic growth. And it can hurt stock prices of U.S. companies that do business abroad, as sales of their products in weakening currencies fetch fewer dollars.

“Many U.S. Treasury secretaries, administration officials and financial pundits have touted a strong dollar policy, but the impacts of such a policy are a mixed bag,” said Bob Hughes, lead author of Business Conditions Monthly, an AIER report which provides an outlook for the U.S. economy, and a read on inflationary pressures. This month’s edition, which focuses on the impact of the rising dollar, suggests a slightly weaker economy than last month, but forecasts continued growth in the quarters ahead, as well as subdued inflationary pressures.

In addition to the impact on the economy and inflationary pressures, the report highlights the strong dollar’s potential impacts and risks for investors in global fixed income markets and commodities, as well as U.S. equities and global equities.

Hughes said the dollar is likely to head even higher, as this country’s economy gains strength, and U.S. interest rates begin to rise while foreign central banks ease their own monetary policies. Consequently, investors may still have time to review their portfolios and make appropriate adjustments to mitigate the risks from a stronger dollar, Hughes said. To read the full report, visit aier.org.

In this section

UK Investors are Underweight

The majority (50%) of UK independent financial advisers (IFAs) believe sophisticated investors are underweight in the venture capital sector according to new research commissioned by leading venture capital investor Albion Ventures.

READ MORE →

Stephen Campbell on the Growth Capital Market

Stephen Campbell, Partner of Panoramic Growth Equity, gives his predictions on the growth capital market in 2014

READ MORE →

Time to Buy Emerging Markets Again?

Following the recent sell-off in emerging markets, there is a view developing that now is the time to invest.

READ MORE →

Food Retailers Feel the Aldi/Lidl Squeeze

Ahead of Sainsbury’s full year results, Michael Hewson takes a critical look at its performance and how the new kids on the block Aldi and Lidl are affecting the big supermarkets market share.

READ MORE →

Never Too Late

Global high-yield bonds gain popularity in Thailand, but retail investors so far sidelined

READ MORE →

Investors to Profit Strongly From IPOs

New research from Capita Asset Services shows investors who buy into an IPO would see their returns outstrip the wider market.

READ MORE →